There’s a concept I like to call HILP (High Impact Low Probability).
I consider an event or activity to be HILP when it has the potential to drastically alter your life, but whose chances of occurring are exceedingly rare. In other words: High Impact, Low Probability.
An example of a positive hilp is, say, becoming an overnight millionaire from some phone app you created a la “Flappy Bird.” It’s a life-changing event, but not one you can count on.
An example of a negative hilp might be having your business wiped out by the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis. Again, transformative in scale, while being rare and unpredictable.
I can think of at least 2 applications for this concept:
#1 Someone who is temperamentally cautious–paranoid even–tends to discount the power of positive hilps–a sudden boom in one of his stocks, unexpected word of an unlisted dream job, or a serendipitous encounter with the girl who will become his future wife.
As per the Pareto principle:
80% of your stock gains come from 20% of your portfolio,
80% of the value in your life comes from 20% of the actions you take,
80% of the joy in your life comes from 20% of the people you meet.
Etcetera.
So in order to maximize exposure to positive hilps, engage in positive hilp behavior. Diversify. Go outside. Take a f*cking chance!
#2 Someone who is temperamentally unwary–an eternal optimist, perhaps–tends to neglect the possibility of negative hilps–a mugging on the street, a botched surgical procedure, or a tsunami off the coast of Southern California. Being positive might engender confidence, but not mitigating one’s risk is naive, and sometimes dangerous.
In order to minimize brushes with negative hilps, take precautions. Be vigilant of your surroundings. Get a second opinion. Know which way the beach is so you can evacuate in the opposite direction!
And if all else fails, you can always pray for hilp.
I know, bad pun. Sorry, I couldn’t hilp myself!
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